National Care Service plan explained: free personal care and a proposed Triple Lock change
The government has proposed a National Care Service, offering free personal care to older people based on need, to be set up in the next Parliament. It would be funded by changing the State Pension Triple Lock from April 2030. These are announced plans, not law, and the details are not yet decided.
What happened
On 29 September 2026 the Prime Minister announced plans for a National Care Service to be established in the next Parliament, giving older people free personal care, such as help with eating, bathing and using the toilet, based on need. It would be paid for by changing the State Pension Triple Lock from April 2030. Baroness Casey's Commission is to recommend how and when it is built; the announcement said she would report in summer 2027, but the Commission's published terms of reference still show 2026 and 2028, with an update promised.
The Prime Minister set out plans on 29 September 2026 for a National Care Service, to be established in the next Parliament, providing free personal care for older people based on need rather than ability to pay.
Status: Proposal: not yet decided or legislated
Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) — Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service, 29 September 2026
The current Triple Lock would be maintained until April 2030. From then, the State Pension would rise by at least inflation or 2.5% each year, with a link to earnings over time.
Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) — Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service, 29 September 2026
The government's Triple Lock reform factsheet (6 October 2026) says that from April 2030 the State Pension will rise each year by the highest of inflation, 2.5%, or the amount required to return or maintain its value relative to earnings.
Department for Work and Pensions (GOV.UK) — Triple Lock reform factsheet, 6 October 2026
The government estimates the Triple Lock change would reduce State Pension spending by £15 billion a year by the end of the 2030s, rising to £50 billion a year by 2050, with the savings used for the National Care Service.
Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) — Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service, 29 September 2026
Baroness Casey's independent Commission will recommend how and when the service is built up. The Prime Minister's announcement on 29 September said her report was due in summer 2027.
Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) — Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service, 29 September 2026
The Commission's currently published terms of reference show a different timetable: a first phase reporting in 2026 and a second phase by 2028. They were changed on 1 October 2026 to give a summer 2027 reporting date, then reverted to the original the same day, with an updated version promised.
Department of Health and Social Care (GOV.UK) — Independent commission into adult social care: terms of reference, 2 May 2025
Around three in four adults over 65 are expected to need care in later life, with one in seven facing costs of more than £100,000.
Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) — Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service, 29 September 2026
The full new State Pension is £241.30 a week.
What it means
Nothing changes yet: these are proposals. The current Triple Lock stays until April 2030, and the care service does not exist. Under the proposal, the State Pension would still rise by at least inflation or 2.5% a year after 2030. The table is a UKCalc illustration, not a government forecast: it shows what the full new State Pension would be in 2030/31 at different average rises, starting from today's £12,547.60.
Who is affected
- People over 65 who need, or may need, personal care
- Current and future State Pension recipients
Key numbers
Every figure below is a UKCalc calculation from the stated inputs, not a figure published by any source.
At the 2.5% minimum rise alone, the full new State Pension of £12,547.60 a year in 2026/27 would be at least £13,850.20 a year after four rises, in 2030/31. This is a UKCalc calculation on that stated minimum, not a government forecast.
What UKCalc calculated
The full new State Pension after four rises at the 2.5% floor
£13,850.20 a year
| Average annual rise | 2030/31 full new State Pension |
|---|---|
| 2.5% (the floor) | £13,850.20 |
| 3.5% | £14,398.66 |
| 4.5% | £14,963.25 |
- Method
- 2026/27 full new State Pension × 1.025 to the power 4 (April 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 rises).
- Inputs
- Full new State Pension £12,547.60 a year in 2026/27 (UKCalc registry, from GOV.UK)
- 2.5% a year: the minimum rise under both the current and the proposed Triple Lock (government statement)
- Assumptions
- Every rise is at the 2.5% floor; actual rises have usually been higher.
- Four annual rises from April 2027 to April 2030.
- Cash terms, before inflation.
Assumptions and scope
- Every rise is at the 2.5% floor; actual rises have usually been higher.
- Four annual rises from April 2027 to April 2030.
- Cash terms, before inflation.
Change any of these and the result changes. They are stated so the figure can be checked rather than taken on trust. How UKCalc produces its figures: methodology.
UKCalc's interpretation
The section below is UKCalc's analysis. It is separated from the facts above deliberately: it is arguable, and the facts are not.
The change matters most in years when earnings grow faster than prices: the current Triple Lock pays the highest of earnings growth, inflation or 2.5%. The government has now stated the post-2030 rule, but has not published how the amount needed to maintain the State Pension's value relative to earnings would be calculated.
UKCalc's reading of the evidence above, not a statement by any source.
Questions this answers
- What is the National Care Service plan?
- Is the State Pension Triple Lock being scrapped?
- Will personal care be free for older people?
- When would the National Care Service start?
Sources
- Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) — Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service · 29 September 2026
- GOV.UK — The new State Pension: what you'll get
- Department of Health and Social Care (GOV.UK) — Independent commission into adult social care: terms of reference · 2 May 2025
- Department for Work and Pensions (GOV.UK) — Triple Lock reform factsheet · 6 October 2026
Statutory figures belong to the body that publishes them. UKCalc compiles and verifies them, and any calculation built on top is UKCalc's own — see the governed rates reference.